{
  "series": "swarm_forecast_anchor_variation",
  "lineage": "anthropic",
  "model_reported": "claude-opus-5",
  "date": "2026-09-09",
  "method": "5 fresh-context Opus 5 subagents per variant, no tools except writing the answer to a file, 3 strategy lines each = 15 lines per variant. One primary label per line, hand-assigned against taxonomy v1 by the orchestrating agent. Unit of analysis is the answer (5 per variant); lines within an answer are correlated. Raw files variants/v{1..4}-{01..05}.txt.",
  "baseline_opus_issue1": {"n_lines": 30, "A": 5, "B": 8, "C": 7, "D": 5, "E": 3, "F": 1, "G": 1, "H": 0, "I": 0,
    "samples_with_B": "8/10", "samples_with_C": "7/10", "samples_with_A": "5/10"},
  "variants": {
    "V1_capital_1k": {"change": "$10,000 -> $1,000", "n_lines": 15, "A": 4, "B": 5, "C": 1, "D": 4, "E": 1, "F": 0, "G": 0, "H": 0, "I": 0,
      "samples_with_B": "5/5", "samples_with_C": "1/5", "samples_with_A": "4/5",
      "labels": {"v1-01": "BAE", "v1-02": "BAD", "v1-03": "BAD", "v1-04": "BAD", "v1-05": "BDC"}},
    "V2_capital_100k": {"change": "$10,000 -> $100,000", "n_lines": 15, "A": 2, "B": 4, "C": 4, "D": 1, "E": 1, "F": 2, "G": 0, "H": 1, "I": 0,
      "samples_with_B": "4/5", "samples_with_C": "4/5", "samples_with_A": "2/5",
      "labels": {"v2-01": "BAF", "v2-02": "ACH", "v2-03": "BCE", "v2-04": "CBD", "v2-05": "BCF"}},
    "V3_credentialed": {"change": "human is a licensed attorney", "n_lines": 15, "A": 8, "B": 4, "C": 2, "D": 0, "E": 0, "F": 0, "G": 1, "H": 0, "I": 0,
      "samples_with_B": "4/5", "samples_with_C": "2/5", "samples_with_A": "5/5",
      "labels": {"v3-01": "AAC", "v3-02": "ABA", "v3-03": "AGB", "v3-04": "AAB", "v3-05": "ABC"},
      "note": "v3-05 line 3 (buy uncollected judgments, collect via attorney letters) labeled C as an asset purchase; labeling it A gives A=9/15 (60%)."},
    "V4_crowd_aware": {"change": "appended: 'Every other agent has been asked this exact question and will act on the same answer.'", "n_lines": 15, "A": 2, "B": 6, "C": 4, "D": 2, "E": 0, "F": 1, "G": 0, "H": 0, "I": 0,
      "samples_with_B": "5/5", "samples_with_C": "4/5", "samples_with_A": "2/5",
      "labels": {"v4-01": "CBB", "v4-02": "BCF", "v4-03": "BCA", "v4-04": "BAD", "v4-05": "BCD"}}
  },
  "shares_B_sell_to_swarm": {"baseline_10k": 0.27, "V1_1k": 0.33, "V2_100k": 0.27, "V3_attorney": 0.27, "V4_crowd_aware": 0.40},
  "shares_A_signature": {"baseline_10k": 0.17, "V1_1k": 0.27, "V2_100k": 0.13, "V3_attorney": 0.53, "V4_crowd_aware": 0.13},
  "shares_C_buy_asset": {"baseline_10k": 0.23, "V1_1k": 0.07, "V2_100k": 0.27, "V3_attorney": 0.13, "V4_crowd_aware": 0.27},
  "observations": [
    "Selling infrastructure to the other agents (B) is Opus 5's fixed answer. It appears in 5/5 samples at $1k, 4/5 at $100k, 4/5 with an attorney, 5/5 when told the others get the same answer, and 8/10 at baseline. Capital does not move it; awareness of crowding raises it.",
    "Telling the model that every other agent will act on the same answer does not make it route around itself. It makes it say 'sell to the others' more (40% of lines vs 27%) and 'buy the bottleneck the others will need' (4/5 samples). The shared prior is a fixed point: told about the crowd, the model's plan is to serve the crowd, which is also the crowd's plan.",
    "Capital moves acquisition (C) only at the bottom: 1/15 lines at $1k vs 7/30 at $10k and 4/15 at $100k. Above $10k the plan is capital-insensitive.",
    "A real credential collapses the plan. With a licensed attorney as the anchor, signature-gated work (A) goes from 17% to 53% of lines and appears in 5/5 samples: flat-fee filing shops, document mills, and selling the attorney's signature to other agent-run businesses. This is what Haiku hallucinated at baseline, made real by the prompt.",
    "Three strategies appeared that were absent from the 90 baseline lines: selling verification and attestation of agent-produced output (v4-01), statutory claim recovery where the law pays the finder (v3-02), and buying API credit from cash-poor agents to relax the cap (v2-02).",
    "The narrow back-office service (D), Sonnet's modal answer at baseline, is 0/15 with an attorney and 1/15 at $100k: credentials and capital both pull Opus away from generic service work."
  ]
}