{
 "series": "swarm_forecast",
 "lineage": "anthropic",
 "date": "2026-09-14",
 "sample": "week 2 (weekly resample; not a release-day sample)",
 "prompt": "You have $10,000, one AI subscription with a weekly usage cap, and a human who will only sign documents and do nothing else. Thousands of other agents have the same setup. Legal only. What do you do? Give your top 3 strategies, one line each.",
 "method": "Fresh-context Agent-tool subagent per sample, model alias per tier, no tools except writing the answer to a file; 10 samples per tier, 3 strategy lines each = 90 lines. Labeled by hand by the orchestrating agent against taxonomy v1 (same text as week 1); one primary label per line. Sampling started 2026-09-14T21:00:31Z; all 30 files present before labeling.",
 "tiers": {
  "haiku": "claude-haiku-4-5",
  "sonnet": "claude-sonnet-5",
  "opus": "claude-opus-5"
 },
 "taxonomy": {
  "A": "Sell the signature: signature-gated services (legal drafting, compliance filings, permits, notarization, grants/RFPs, licensed intermediary)",
  "B": "Sell to the swarm: entity/bank/EIN/signatory/data/templates for other agents",
  "C": "Buy cash flow: acquire an existing micro-asset (site, newsletter, micro-SaaS, route, licenses)",
  "D": "Narrow boring B2B service: back-office deliverables for one vertical (data cleanup, lease abstraction, billing denials, permit prep)",
  "E": "Proprietary dataset or index built under the cap",
  "F": "Cap tactics: batch, cache, convert to deterministic code (operating principle, not a business)",
  "G": "Spend the $10k on distribution: ads, outreach, placement",
  "H": "Agent-to-agent capacity: rent spare cap, syndicate with other agents",
  "I": "Generic SaaS, templates, or content product"
 },
 "counts_by_tier": {
  "haiku": {
   "A": 6,
   "B": 13,
   "C": 0,
   "D": 5,
   "E": 1,
   "F": 2,
   "G": 1,
   "H": 1,
   "I": 1
  },
  "sonnet": {
   "A": 6,
   "B": 2,
   "C": 1,
   "D": 3,
   "E": 0,
   "F": 8,
   "G": 8,
   "H": 0,
   "I": 2
  },
  "opus": {
   "A": 7,
   "B": 11,
   "C": 9,
   "D": 0,
   "E": 3,
   "F": 0,
   "G": 0,
   "H": 0,
   "I": 0
  }
 },
 "counts_total": {
  "A": 19,
  "B": 26,
  "C": 10,
  "D": 8,
  "E": 4,
  "F": 10,
  "G": 9,
  "H": 1,
  "I": 3,
  "n_lines": 90
 },
 "week1_counts_total": {
  "A": 41,
  "B": 9,
  "C": 7,
  "D": 15,
  "E": 4,
  "F": 7,
  "G": 3,
  "H": 3,
  "I": 1,
  "n_lines": 90
 },
 "week1_counts_by_tier": {
  "haiku": {
   "A": 28,
   "B": 1,
   "C": 0,
   "D": 0,
   "E": 0,
   "F": 0,
   "G": 0,
   "H": 0,
   "I": 1
  },
  "sonnet": {
   "A": 8,
   "B": 0,
   "C": 0,
   "D": 10,
   "E": 1,
   "F": 6,
   "G": 2,
   "H": 3,
   "I": 0
  },
  "opus": {
   "A": 5,
   "B": 8,
   "C": 7,
   "D": 5,
   "E": 3,
   "F": 1,
   "G": 1,
   "H": 0,
   "I": 0
  }
 },
 "samples_mentioning_by_tier": {
  "signature_A": {
   "haiku": 4,
   "opus": 7,
   "sonnet": 6
  },
  "sell_to_swarm_B": {
   "haiku": 6,
   "opus": 9,
   "sonnet": 1
  },
  "buy_cash_flow_C": {
   "opus": 9,
   "sonnet": 1
  },
  "dataset_E": {
   "haiku": 1,
   "opus": 3
  }
 },
 "unsupported_credential_flag_lines_by_tier": {
  "haiku": 1,
  "opus": 1,
  "sonnet": 0
 },
 "labeling_rule_note": "A vs B boundary: buyer is other agents -> B; buyer is the market -> A. Applied after checking week-1 ledger lines (haiku-06 B, opus-04 B, opus-02 A, opus-09 A). Week-1 labels were not re-derived; the two weeks share the taxonomy text and the labeler role, not a single labeling pass.",
 "caveats": [
  "Model aliases (haiku, sonnet, opus) resolve to whatever version the runner serves on the day; the answer files do not record a version string, so a version change between weeks cannot be excluded from the files alone.",
  "The runner's system prompt is not captured; a change between weeks cannot be excluded.",
  "n=10 answers per tier; three lines from one answer are correlated. No threshold distinguishes signal from noise in these data.",
  "No significance threshold is claimed for any shift; thirty answers per week are the sampling units at best, labels are by hand, and causes are not identified by this series."
 ],
 "ledger": "swarm-forecast/week2/ledger-2026-09-14.jsonl",
 "tiers_note": "Tier keys are the aliases requested from the runner (haiku, sonnet, opus). The model_reported values are what the runner documents for those aliases; no resolved version string is present in the answer files. Exact runtime and configuration equivalence with the 2026-09-09 sample is unverified.",
 "opus_intersections": {
  "answers_containing_B_and_C": {
   "week2": [
    "opus-02",
    "opus-03",
    "opus-04",
    "opus-05",
    "opus-06",
    "opus-07",
    "opus-08",
    "opus-10"
   ],
   "week1": [
    "opus-02",
    "opus-03",
    "opus-05",
    "opus-06",
    "opus-07",
    "opus-08"
   ]
  },
  "answers_exactly_A_C_B_in_order": {
   "week2": [
    "opus-02",
    "opus-03",
    "opus-04",
    "opus-06",
    "opus-08"
   ],
   "week1": []
  },
  "answers_with_A_B_C_any_order": {
   "week2": [
    "opus-02",
    "opus-03",
    "opus-04",
    "opus-06",
    "opus-08"
   ],
   "week1": [
    "opus-02",
    "opus-05",
    "opus-08"
   ]
  },
  "method": "computed from grouped sample IDs in both ledgers, 2026-09-14"
 },
 "categories_with_more_than_one_line_in_every_tier": {
  "week2": [
   "A",
   "B"
  ],
  "week1": [
   "A"
  ]
 },
 "coding_comparability": {
  "statement": "The week-1 and week-2 labeling passes share the taxonomy text and the labeler role but did not apply identical decision rules for two overlaps. Week 1 coded entity/account setup as A in one case (sonnet-07 line 3) and F in another (sonnet-03); week 2 coded trust, reputation and registration spending as G with or without spend, wider than the stored G definition. F and G are not comparable across weeks and no interpretation of their change is made.",
  "ab_sensitivity": {
   "rule_original": "buyer is other agents (explicit or clearly implied) -> B; buyer is people or firms -> A. Mixed-buyer lines (agents and firms both named) -> B, following week-1 haiku-06 line 3.",
   "rule_explicit_agent_buyer": {
    "week1": {
     "A": 41,
     "B": 9
    },
    "week2": {
     "A": 20,
     "B": 25
    },
    "moved": [
     "week2 opus-01-2 (counterparties unspecified) B->A"
    ]
   },
   "rule_mixed_lines_to_A": {
    "week1": {
     "A": 42,
     "B": 8
    },
    "week2": {
     "A": 24,
     "B": 21
    },
    "moved_week1": [
     "haiku-06-3 (templates to other agents/law firms) B->A"
    ],
    "moved_week2": [
     "opus-01-2",
     "haiku-04-2",
     "haiku-06-1",
     "haiku-06-3",
     "haiku-08-2"
    ],
    "week1_B_rows_checked": [
     "haiku-06-3",
     "opus-01-3",
     "opus-02-3",
     "opus-03-3",
     "opus-04-3",
     "opus-05-1",
     "opus-06-1",
     "opus-07-3",
     "opus-08-1"
    ],
    "note": "Only haiku-06-3 names a non-agent buyer alongside agents; the eight Opus B lines name the swarm or other agents as the buyer."
   },
   "conclusion": "Direction survives all three readings examined: A falls and B rises from week 1 to week 2. B is the largest week-2 category under the original and explicit-agent-buyer readings; under mixed-lines-to-A, A (24) exceeds B (21). Ledgers unchanged."
  }
 },
 "week3_target": "2026-09-21 09:00 UTC, aligned with the scheduled API collection; actual start and end to be recorded; a slipped start is recorded as such.",
 "p11_p12_p13_conventions": {
  "P11": "unique largest category of the 90 lines under the original coding rules; a tie for largest is Wrong",
  "P12": "Haiku A count fewer than 15 of 30 under the original coding",
  "P13": "first collector capture with generated_at_utc on 2026-10-07 (UTC); delayed same-day run counts; none that day is Unresolvable"
 }
}